2012 Season Footy Punting Tips
Posted by Max ProphetMar 20. 2012 12:42 pm
Hello Football Nation and welcome to the first ever feature by Max Prophet*
Inseparable from our great game are icons like the Four’N Twenty pie, duffle jacket, footy record and the occasional (alcohol-induced) bet with your mate – often requiring your ‘underdog’ outfit to knock off last year’s premiers, with your best players missing in action!
I truly hope the first three prosper, the latter though, we hope to address in this new weekly feature dedicated to making a buck out of our favorite pastime: Footy Punting and Tipping.
With a lengthy history of punting that began with a single unit win wager on Bonecrusher, who eventually nosed out Our Waverley Star in the 1986 WS Cox Plate (a classic and I’ve included the video below so you can see it for yourself), I’ve been committed to the punt and sport alike.
Alas, it is a different code we now seek to exploit as the footy season descends upon us after a lengthy summer of short test matches (thanks India).
While the format changes, I suggest the punting doesn’t, as bookmakers and betting agencies fill their boards with exotic betting options, e.g. ‘first goal scorer of the last quarter’ and ‘first team to 35 points’. I’m not suggesting these markets are anything but ridiculous, but it is a game changer in that we are no longer forced to back the Blues to beat the Tigers at $1.45 and watch our hard-earned run around for 2 hours in the hope we win enough to cover a parma (chips only, no salad) at the local pub after the game! A simple** parlay can provide us with an entire weekend of football frivolity and earnings many times that of our initial outlay.
So, will I help you collect that coveted hamper on offer for 1st prize in the office tipping competition – probably not! Can we collect a few dollars from the bookies on a Monday morning without raising a sweat – I think so!
Each week we’ll focus our efforts on matches and markets that provide both financial and entertainment value for our investment dollar.
With my wages burning a hole in my pocket and round one still a week away, I suggest we tickle the long term markets and take a look at the Brownlow, Coleman and Premiership markets – with a twist.
“The twist” here is backing to lay.
The advent of betting agencies affords us the ability to ‘back’ our fancy and conversely ‘sell’ these bets at a later date in the season (in-play). This way, we can hopefully return a tidy profit without the need to identify the winner of these market types.
Let’s explore the Brownlow in more detail:
Matthew Boyd continues to smash the board with (contested) possessions and managed to poll well at the Brownlow count last year. Let’s ‘back’ him with a $50 stake at $44 before the season starts. The completion of each round will see his odds for the Charlie fluctuate, reflecting a combination of elements including, but not limited to: his performance, the performance of others, injuries to him/others, as well as general media attention.
With this in mind, let’s also pony up with some long term wagers on the key markets. We’ll track these wagers at 5 week intervals and keep you posted on suggested actions accordingly.
Brownlow: I’m looking to back five players and suspect each of the first four will perform consistently and can at least halve their odds in the second half of the season. I’ve left the last spot open and will revisit this after round two.
| Player | Action | Wager | Odds (original) | Odd (Now) | Profit/Loss |
| Nick Dal Santo | Back | $50 | $40 | $40 | - |
| Matthew Boyd | Back | $50 | $44 | $44 | - |
| Trent Cotchin | Back | $50 | $54 | $54 | - |
| Aaron Sandilands | Back | $50 | $75 | $75 | - |
| Open |
Coleman: Very keen on the ‘traditional’ full-forward and with talk of Buddy playing up the ground, we may see Jack on his own at the top of the table by mid-season. Going to include Pavlich as I expect Lyon will commit him to the forward line this year. Petrie kicked seven yesterday for the Roos but I can’t see that happening regularly once the season starts!
| Player | Action | Wager | Odds (original) | Odd (Now) | Profit/Loss |
| Jack Riewoldt | Back | $100 | $7.8 | $7.8 | - |
| Matthew Pavlich | Back | $50 | $34 | $34 | - |
Premiership: The Eagles have done nothing wrong over the last 24 months and again appear likely to push for a top 4 position. Their nearest rival Fremantle is stacked with talent, and I’m hoping their first ‘real’ coach will strengthen their mindset and see them reside within the eight for the bulk of the season. Essendon were severely hindered by injuries last season and with a year under his belt, I suspect Hird can solidify his game plan and derive more consistency fro the troops.
| Player | Action | Wager | Odds (original) | Odd (Now) | Profit/Loss |
| West Coast | Back | $50 | $15 | $15 | - |
| Fremantle | Back | $50 | $30 | $30 | - |
| Essendon | Back | $50 | $60 | $60 | - |
Rising Star Award: A raffle really. A shortened board and a very small pool (at time of writing) leaves me with Lucas and Neale, who should both see plenty of game time and are both impact players.
| Player | Action | Wager | Odds (original) | Odd (Now) | Profit/Loss |
| Kane Lucas | Back | $50 | $12.50 | $12.50 | - |
| Lachie Neale | Back | $50 | $25 | $25 | - |
That’s it for this week’s inaugural feature. Post your comments below and let me know your thoughts – especially if you have a winner for me!
See you next week.
Max.
* NOT my real name!
** A single wager consisting of multiple teams to win, which in turn multiplies the odds on offer
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Photo appears under the Creative Commons
Attribution-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC-ND BY 2.0)
Source: Flickr.com, User: bakerfishsticks
Tags: Footy Punting, Footy Tipping
Filled under: Expert Analysis, Football Nation Feature, Latest News
