Max’s AFL Footy Bets for Round 20 2012
Posted by Max ProphetAug 10. 2012 9:50 am
Round 19 was a ripper. Three epic matches decided by a kick, including one after the siren!
The Giants cause a boilover and the Demons climb out of spoon contention – seems they can’t win anything!
But for mine, Friday night’s game between the Cats and Hawks was the best of the year. It was set up to be a cracker and within minutes I had think sinking feeling that it was more likely to be a stinker. But the Hawks never really seemed that bothered by the Cats flying start and cruised back into the game so elegantly, it seemed most unlikely that they would not run away with the game – until Chappy’s curse struck – on the siren. Tom Hawkins goal was HUGE. The match HUGER.
We only had to wait until the next night for another epic contest with the Pies gaining the victory with a goal to spare in less dramatic circumstances, yet still a game highly entertaining. Then to round our the er, round, the Crows clung on to the lead in the dying stages against an Essendon team desperate for an unlikely success, in very wet and difficult conditions that produced a great combative environment.
Bring on round 20:
West Coast ($1.92) vs. Geelong ($1.92):
Well, the bookies can’t split them, but on recent form you’d suggest the Cats will be very hard to beat. They certainly have a taste for it now and I think it would be fair to say the giant has awoken! The Eagles were horrible last week against the Dockers and they must regroup quickly or face the possibility of missing the top four and fighting their way through finals away from Perth – that may be incentive enough here, but you’ll need to take them on trust. I’m happy to stick on the Cats with the knowledge my hard earned will get a good showing. The inclusion of captain Glass and the long awaited return of Embley will provide valuable experience.
Suggested bet: Cats to win @ $1.92
St Kilda ($1.05) vs. Melbourne ($11.00):
Hard to see the Demons staying with the Saints here. They’ll be buoyed by their win last week and they found a way to goal via great midfield pressure, but I can’t see the Saints back half allowing them to hit the scoreboard like that this week. Could the fact that the Saints cannot make the finals curb their enthusiasm?
Suggested bet: None
Adelaide ($1.40) vs. Fremantle ($3.05):
The Crows have lost only 4 games all year (including NAB Cup) and that form has to suggest they’ll again get the job done here. They regain Tippett which is great news and let’s hope he gets through the game unscathed. The Dockers will come out swinging though having won their last five and the big Pavlova in terrific form in front of the big sticks. Their job on the Eagles last week was impressive and one I did not see coming. They will have to play at the same intensity to get over the Crows here.
Suggested bet: Crows to win @ $1.40
Gold Coast ($1.42) vs. GWS ($2.95):
Round two match-up of the youngsters with GWS getting the nod earlier in the year. This time the game is at Metricon and the Suns may just notch the first home win of their career! It will not be easy though, as the winner here will most likely avoid the wooden spoon. That being said, the loser will get first pick in the National Draft which must be appealing. Not a betting match.
Suggested bet: None
Carlton ($1.20) vs. Brisbane ($4.80):
The Blues appear to have most areas of the ground covered against the Lions, but you’ll have to take some shorts odds on them winning. The Lions record against higher placed teams this year is horrible and they’ll struggle again here.
Suggested bet: Most possessions – Marc Murphy @ $3.75
Sydney ($1.54) vs. Collingwood ($2.55):
The Pies price seems like money for jam when you consider they have won their last 10 games against the Swans, including 7 at ANZ Stadium. To complicate things, the Swans have quietly won their last 9 games in a row and sit 1st on the ladder, two spots higher then their enemy. The loss of Bolton will be significant as he is a true ‘Swan-like’ warrior – unheralded, yet utterly dependable and guaranteed to walk off the ground muddier than his opponent. To add more complexity, the Pies ousted the loveable larrikin Swannie for a late night binge. The Pies have covered the loss of both Swan and Pendlebury remarkably well though this year, with SideBottom (yes, it deserves a capital B), Beams and Wellingham really stepping up in their absence. The Swans are obviously hot at the moment, but you cannot deny the great record Collingwood have over them in recent times and I’m sure you’ll get value for money if taking the $2.55.
Suggested bet: Pies at the margin (1-39) @ $3.10
Hawthorn ($1.00) vs. Port Adelaide ($21.00):
Good luck Garry Hocking! Probably no more difficult task than taking on the Hawks (in their prime) at your first crack as coach in the big league. Would a loss under 100 points be a win given the circumstances?
Suggested bet: None
Richmond ($1.16) vs. Western Bulldogs ($5.50):
I so wish these two teams were still in contention, but they are not and this game does not excite. The Tigers should be strong favourites (as they are), but they haven’t beaten the Dogs since round 3, 2005. Surely, they will triumph here.
Suggested bet: Tigers to win at the margin (40+) @ $2.00
Essendon ($2.30) vs. North Melbourne ($1.65):
The Roos strong recent record (4 from 5) has them favoured over the Bombers (1 from 5) but I feel little separates them. That is probably not an alarming statement given the sit equal on the ladder split by a single percentage point only! I’d suggest getting the work around the house done early to ensure that little spot on the couch is free for use, as this match should be highly entertaining. Both teams must win to play finals and both teams usually play a fast, high scoring brand of football that has seen recent match-ups see-saw from siren-to-siren. The return of Crameri, Fletcher and Hibberd is significant, as is the return of Edward and Adams for the Roos. Etihad Stadium poses no problems for either team with both teams possessing good records at the track. A really hard game to finish with.
Suggested bet: Either team under 15.5 points @ $2.60
Kitty: -$903
The punt:
- Multi: Cats (+7.5), Pies (+7.5) & Bombers (+7.5) for $100 @ $6.75
Go Aussies!
Max Prophet
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Tags: Footy Betting
Filled under: AFL Fixture, Expert Analysis, Latest News, Round 20
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