Max’s AFL Footy Bets for Round 17 2012
Posted by Max ProphetJul 20. 2012 9:49 am
This could well be a defining round for many clubs.
There are some great clashes, starting tonight with the Cats vs. Bombers, which will definitely get the juices flowing. Last weekend’s results were generally expected, the exception being the Suns enormous victory over a very disappointing Richmond, who can kiss their finals chances goodbye. The Swans were also extremely good out west in the final match of the round, clinically taking apart the Eagles in a manner that will have Worsfold scratching his head in search of retaliative answers when they take on the Crows tomorrow.
Where can we look for winners this weekend?
Geelong ($2.05) vs. Essendon ($1.80):
Really looking forward to this match. If the first 16 rounds have taught us anything, the Bombers should be too quick across the ground for the Cats, who have really struggled to play with the intensity we’ve expected of them all year. To think it will come tonight might be clutching at straws, but then again, we all know how teams perform when their backs are to the wall and the Bombers haven’t exactly been sure things of late. Crameri and Monfries are great inclusions for them.
Suggested bet: Bombers over 15.5 points @ $2.50
Collingwood ($1.98) vs. Hawthorn ($1.87):
Surely this will be a great contest. I do wish Buddy was playing! There has been plenty of money to say the Pies will walk away victors here and there price has been crunched from around the $2.20 mark early in the week. There have been no significant personnel changes and both teams appear happy with their lists. Third and fourth on the ladder respectively, with no obvious advantage to either team on recent form, I’m forced to go with my instincts on this one.
Suggested bet: Pies to win @ $1.98
Adelaide ($1.45) vs. West Coast ($2.85):
Looks like I won’t see the missus at all this weekend as this one is another ‘must see’ game. The last time these two teams met the Eagles won by 95 points. You can have 100/1 about that happening again here. Second vs. fifth with a top four spot at stake you’d suspect, so plenty to play for. The Crows regain Tippet, Petrenko, Doughty and Johncock (of note) while the Eagles welcome back Waters and Lynch. Recent form between these two is all over the place and of little consequence I think, the possible exception that the Eagles have played well at AAMI before. Good luck!
Suggested bet: Crows at the margin (40+) @ $3.70
Gold Coast ($3.60) vs. Brisbane ($1.31):
Can the Suns go back-to-back? Why not? The Lions have been horrible away from the Gabba and the recent inclusion of some older heads at the Suns has seen them turn their game around. The Lions have won the last two contests between these two teams by 10+ goals, so it would be somewhat of an upset. Will they turn up to play is the question? Their loss to the Saints last weekend was admirable, but it has killed off their finals aspirations and that may play into the hands of the Suns who will look at this match as a finals-type game, given the same state rivalry.
Suggested bet: Suns to win @ $3.60
Western Bulldogs ($2.70) vs. Carlton ($1.48):
Both teams are on the slide and have horrible form leading onto this game. Throw in a barrage of personnel changes for both teams, no hope of a finals appearance and it looks a mess! The Dogs have won their last two against the Blues, but come into this one having lost 6 of their last 7…..The Blues are without Judd, Walker Kreuzer and Henderson, and are already missing Hampson and Warnock! I’ve heard Jamison and Scotland are lame as well. Alarm bells!
Suggested bet: Dogs at the margin (1-39) @ $3.20
Melbourne ($2.25) vs. Port Adelaide ($1.67):
A TIO stadium special this one. If nothing else, at least it should be close! The Demons have only ventured to TIO twice, winning both times against their opposition of this week, who have struggled when heading north. Expect another slippery contest which should really bring out the skills of both teams ~ not! Don’t even bother setting the IQ box to record this one.
Suggested bet: Power not to lose @ $1.67
Sydney ($1.39) vs. St Kilda ($3.10):
The Swans victory last week was massive. They have risen to the occasion when required (smashed Hawks in Tassie) and their tenure atop the ladder could go the distance. They have been stellar at home this year, but the Saints should take a great deal of confidence to Sydney following their impressive victory over the Swans in round 9. In fact, this was the last time the Swans lost! The Saints regain Goddard and Steven, while the Swans remain largely unchanged. Will the dreaded Perth ‘week after’ hoodoo have any effect on the bloods?
Suggested bet: St Kilda to win at the super margin (1-9) @ $11.00
Richmond ($2.20) vs. North Melbourne ($1.69):
How big was the late withdrawal of the big man Maric last week? Surely the Tigers would have got home with him at the helm. They may have even done so had Cotchin been on the ground for the last few minutes as the Suns were piling goals on them! No doubt their loss was a disaster for the resurgent Tigers who just cannot claim a finals berth. Are they heartbroken? Of course. Can they recover and beat the Kangaroos? Of course. They regain the mullet, Martin and Miller, while the Roos may be without Petrie, who looked sore last week and sat out he last quarter with a groin complaint. They’ll definitely be without Ziebell (how can he get 4 weeks for trying to get the ball when Judd gets 4 weeks for trying to pull the arm of a defenceless opponent with an obvious pre-existing condition? This punter would have given Judd 12!) through suspension, but they are very strong through the middle and should cover the loss OK.
Suggested bet: Tigers to win @ $2.20
Fremantle ($1.00) vs. GWS ($21.00):
Have everything you own on the Dockers! NO, JUST KIDDING. They will most likely win, but please don’t back them.
Suggested bet: None
Kitty: -$1213
It appears another tough, but thoroughly enjoyable week on the punt:
- Multi: Suns into Dogs for $50 @ $9.70
- Multi: Bombers, Pies & Crows for $50 @ $5.17
Enjoy!
Max Prophet
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Tags: Footy Betting, Footy Punting
Filled under: AFL Fixture, Expert Analysis, Latest News, Round 17
