Max’s AFL Footy Bets for Round 16 2012
Posted by Max ProphetJul 13. 2012 11:09 am
Well, with nine games a round it seems near impossible to avoid an upset or two. No doubt though that this is a good thing, as we like our football full of surprises and the Blues outstanding victory over the seemingly invincible Pies was a highlight for many given the hatred shared between both supporter groups.
The Saints too, played like their lives depended on it and were well rewarded with a thumping of Essendon who seem to be getting the staggers up again this year! Full credit to both the Suns and Roos, who tried valiantly to inflict defeat on their stronger opponents and appear set to trouble those vying for points on the run home.
Where to in round 16:
Kangaroos ($2.15) vs. Carlton ($1.73):
Lots of money for the Kangaroos here, with most either not believing the effort of Carlton can be backed up or the solid recent form of the Roos will outgun the resurgent Blues. There are definitely cases for both sides here and given they’ve split their last four games and are level pegging on the ladder, I can’t invest strongly here.
Suggested bet: Roos at the margin (1-39) @ $2.75
Melbourne ($2.95) vs. Freemantle ($1.42):
I wouldn’t back Freo with your money and the thought of taking the Demons at $2.95 gives me the shakes. If you are going to have a wager here, make it a small one and don’t watch or listen to the game – it will be nerve racking!
Suggested bet: Demons to record the lowest score of the round @ $10.00
Port Adelaide ($2.85) vs. Essendon ($1.45):
Both of these teams enter the round following big losses and I’d expect there will be a bit of feeling in this one. The Power need to pinch a few games at home to close out the year and Essendon need to win these easier games if they want to finish top four. I think the Bombers will be up against it too, although their class may just get them home. The loss of both Hurley and Ryder will be huge, though there is prediction of rain. This will suit the Power who will be up for a scrap and I expect them to be in this for a long way.
Suggested bet: Port over 15.5 points @ $4.50
Richmond ($1.15) vs. Gold Coast ($5.75):
If the Tigers are serious about September action they must play like a good team and belt the younger, smaller Suns here. There are 5 sides pressing for 8th position and percentage will be vital at the end of the day. I expect they will have this in mind and if they get it all together could spring a big win. The Suns have regained some of their elder statesmen though and seemed a much steadier team last week with Rischitelli and Harbrow down back. This week they regain Swallow and they look much better on paper than they did a month ago. Still, they have yet to win a game so the buck stops there.
Suggested bet: Tigers to cover the line (-37.5) @ $1.92
Brisbane ($2.60) vs. St Kilda ($1.52):
This could be a cracking game. Last week’s poor effort aside (Lions smashed by Swans), these teams have some confidence and are pushing for the last spot in the eight. The Gabba venue is important as I doubt the Lions would be given much hope at Etihad. Simon Black back in the team is enormous, especially given Steven out for the Saints. The Saints talls have been a problem for most teams all year, when they fire. When they don’t, they are like hauling luggage around a peak hour train. Have to take the Lions on trust here.
Suggested bet: Lions at the margin (1-39) @ $3.20
Geelong ($2.45) vs. Collingwood ($1.57):
Match of the round I suspect as these teams rarely fail to put on a show. Stevie J is back, although the loss of Bartel is huge and probably the main reason the Pies are favoured by the bag carriers. Well, that and the fact Pendlebury is back in the line-up, along with Tarrant and Brown. There are some great match-ups all over the park and this match promises to be a ripper. Now, how do I get out of that dinner party commitment…..
Suggested bet: Pies at the margin (40+) @ $4.20
GWS ($21.00) vs. Adelaide ($1.00):
Charity match.
Suggested bet: None
Western Bulldogs ($11.00) vs. Hawthorn ($1.05):
Given the Hawks have won 8 of their last 9 by more than 10 goals and the Dogs have lost 5 of their last 6 by 10 goals you would find it hard to mount a case for an upset here. The $11 is appealing though and funnier things have happened. I don’t expect the Hawks will miss Buddy that much as they’ve talent to burn and plenty of scoring options up forward.
Suggested bet: Halftime/Fulltime double Dogs-Hawks @ $9.00
West Coast ($1.62) vs. Sydney ($2.35):
Wouldn’t argue if you suggested this game was bigger than the Cats-Pies clash as recent history between these two has been dramatic. They sit 1-2 on the ladder and not surprisingly, the Eagles are strong favourites even though they sit 2nd courtesy of their home ground advantage. They’ve won their last 18 game at Patersons Stadium and it will take a brave punter to tip an end to that run given the ferocity with which they defend their territory. All sorted, now know who your backing- great, let’s throw in the fact that the Swans have won their last 5 in a row against the Eagles, once every year since 2008, including two out west. Confused, so am I- good luck!
Suggested bet: Tri-bet, either team under 15.5 points @ $2.60
Kitty: -$1113
It appears another tough week:
- Multi: Port (-15.5 pts) into Lions (1-39) for $50 @ $14.40
- Halftime/Fulltime double Dogs-Hawks for $50 @ $9.00
- Multi: Roos, Pies & Eagles for $50 @ $5.47
Enjoy the round!
Max Prophet
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Tags: Footy Betting, Footy Punting
Filled under: AFL Fixture, Expert Analysis, Latest News, Round 16
