Max’s AFL Footy Bets for Round 15 2012
Posted by Max ProphetJul 6. 2012 8:34 am
Ah, twas good to take in a full round of football – the multi-bye rounds resembled a night on the tear confined to light beer! Round 14 proved quite predictable too, as all but one favourite (St Kilda) saluted and given this appeared to be the danger game I suspect most managed to snare a win or two over the weekend.
The good: The ladder? As it lies, teams 1 through 8 had resounding victories over the weekend and have as such, declared themselves final 8 material. Teams place 9 through 18 suffered stinging losses (Brisbane Lions the only exclusion) which has not aided their run home.
The bad: It is like a line-up at Kings Cross here – take your pick. Going with the Saints here though – not because they lost to the Roos, but moreso the way in which they were completely incapable of preventing the opposition from scoring (at will) during a critical last quarter. I don’t know how many goals were kicked from a Roo from the goal square, but of the 8 kicked, it had to be half of them!
The ugly: Carlton – Imploding. I’m not sure anyone can see a way out of the mess they are in. You could argue they may not win another game until they tackle the Suns in round 22…..
How can we profit from round 15:
Collingwood ($1.21) vs. Carlton ($4.65):
No Pendles, but no worries I suspect. A lot has changed since a round three thumping (60 pts) which propelled the Blues to outright premiership favourites (now $67). No doubt injuries have significantly contributed to their demise, but it is just as obvious they have a natural imbalance of one dimensional players and a stagnant game plan as a result. This was evident against the Hawks last week and I fear they will be exposed in similar fashion on Friday night as well. Conversely, the Pies have not looked back since that ill-fated game, having won every contest to assume top spot on the ladder. No doubting the winner here.
Suggested bet: Pies to win at the margin (40+) @ $2.40
North Melbourne ($2.75) vs. West Coast ($1.47):
Where on earth is Blundstone Arena? Both teams should take a fair degree of confidence into this game (should they find the ground) although the Eagles will start strong favourites given their recent 20 point victory over the Roos in round 6. That was an Eagles home game though (Patersons Stadium) and this one…….is not. Each of the Eagles three losses to date have been on the road and the Roos seem to finally be playing a ‘Brad Scott’ brand of football. Perhaps it is the Roos indifferent form, but again I’m reluctant to invest too heavily either with or against them. PS. Best turn up in Hobart to watch this one.
Suggested bet: Roos to win @ $2.75
Melbourne ($5.20) vs. Richmond ($1.18):
I feel as though the Demons undid (is that a word?) some good work last weekend with a 10 goal hiding from the Lions. They were lost up forward without Clark and I don’t believe they’ve resolved that issue at the selection table this week. The Tigers were unusually subdued in their efforts last week as they meekly surrendered to the Crows. I suspect they’ll smell a kill here, but I’m not sure how they’ll react given the proposed seven changes to their line up. Happy to stick with the yellow and black. Suggested bet: Tigers at the line (+17.5) @ $1.92
Sydney ($1.17) vs. Brisbane ($5.25):
The Swans have built up a good record against the Lions of late and even though the Queensland mob are working into some form, I doubt they’ll have the strength over four quarters to beat the Swans at home. Goodes will strip fitter and ROK is finding some touch at the right time. I’d like to believe Voss is finally making inroads at the Den, but they’ll need to be competitive here to maintain that momentum. It is a tough ask and one that I’m not prepared to stake a claim on.
Suggested bet: Swans to cover the line (-32.5) @ $1.92
Port Adelaide ($4.00) vs. Adelaide ($1.26):
The Crows were triumphant in the round 5 Showdown and you’d be hard pressed to talk me into a different result this time. The Power are injury-ravaged and the Crows are playing strong, accountable football. One way traffic for mine.
Suggested bet: Adelaide at the margin (40+) @ $2.60
St Kilda ($3.15) vs. Essendon ($1.38):
There has been plenty of talk about the Saints lack of height given their key injuries to Blake and Stanley, poor form of Kosi and the suspension of Goddard. Their saviours are not worthy and the Bombers will attack this game full of merit, Crameri their only casualty courtesy of a broken jaw (not his). The Bombers have shown a liking for match-ups with the Saints and even through the haloed era of the last few years, the Bombers have reigned supreme. I expect the same to unfold at Etihad on the weekend. It will be interesting to see if Hurley can string three good games in a row!
Suggested bet: Bombers at the margin (40+) @ $3.10
Hawthorn ($1.01) vs. GWS ($21.00):
If Buddy plays, can he kick 20? Maybe!
Suggested bet: If he does in fact play, Buddy to kick the most goals of the round (no market yet)
Gold Coast ($18.00) vs. Geelong ($1.01):
The Suns seem to have fallen in a heap, but perhaps an injection of seasoned players the likes of Brown, Rischitelli and Harbrow can provide some spine they’ve desperately needed over the last couple of months. While it would be hard to see them nail the Cats this week, they could sneak in under the line (-57.5) at home against a Cats team that hasn’t quite managed to put an entire game together.
Suggested bet: Suns at the line (-57.5) @ $1.92
Fremantle ($1.20) vs. Western Bulldogs ($4.80):
The Dockers must win this game if they are to remain in the hunt for a finals berth – ditto the Dogs. The Dogs were horrible last week, admittedly against a pretty good team (Essendon) but they are struggling in certain areas of the ground and the loss of creative types like Murphy, Cooney and Jones will make it challenging to say the least.
Suggested bet: Dockers at the margin (1-39) @ $2.20
Kitty: -$863
Somewhat disappointed the Cats struck such bad weather and could not cover the line against the Power last week which tipped us out of two multis at odds of $7 and $10 respectively. Hopefully, we can make amends this week:
- Multi: Pies, Roos, Tigers, Bombers and Crows at the respective lines for $50 @ $26.10
- Multi: Pies, Tigers, Swans, Crows, Bombers & Dockers for $100 @ $3.49
Don’t forget to cheer on Cadel in Le Tour!
Love Max
Tags: Footy Punting, Footy Tipping
Filled under: AFL Fixture, Expert Analysis, Latest News, Round 15
