Max’s AFL Footy Bets for Round 11 2012
Posted by Max ProphetJun 8. 2012 7:38 am
What an amazing weekend of footy – upsets, hidings, comebacks, resignations, celebrations and a baker’s dozen for Buddy. A dull moment, never!
The good: How good was Friday night’s slugfest between the Tigers and Saints? Both teams were legless towards the end, yet bravely fought out an incredible finale that saw each team register six majors in the last quarter – the highlight being a spring-heeled Jack Reiwoldt, who finished with eight goals. How about Hawthorn – back? You bet. Buddy? Unbel13vable! The cellar dwellers (Demons) knock off the ladder leaders (Bombers), with scenes of emotions resembling that of a finals victory.
The bad: Going with the Eagles here. They should have smashed the Lions both on form and in play. Remarkably, they were 21 points up in the last quarter, yet lost to the Lions who had 12 inside 50s for 8.1 (goals.points) to lose by two points. Kudos to Niall McKeever, who chased down Jack Darling to prevent a certain goal with just minutes to go in the game. This was immediately followed by a Polkinghorne spiral to split the sticks from 60m to snatch an unlikely four points. They also spoiled our multi…..
The ugly: This was a tie between the Bombers, Blues, Bulldogs and Roos, for pathetic on-field performances. However, a protest was fired in midweek stating that the Kangaroos performance was so inept, their CEO quit in disgrace. This protest was upheld, the placings amended and the ‘ugly’ now rightfully awarded to the Kangaroos. An unnamed source from the Blues was understood to be devastated by this decision and vowed his team would play worse this weekend – stay tuned.
Let’s take a look at all the games in Round 11:
Carlton ($2.80) vs. Geelong ($1.46):
These two teams share a spot on the ladder, but it is fair to say one is waning and the other on the rise. The money has followed that trend and the Cats are strong favourites here, even though they’ve suspect form to date. The Blues though, appear to have fallen so far from the ‘flag favorite’ days, that most cannot consider them a chance against the reigning premiers. The Cats have collected the four points from their last two outings, but the Blues did make a statement winning the previous two with dashing style that left the Cats looking slow and weak. No doubt their strategy will be similar, but I doubt it will be effective as the premiers are slowly stirring from their slumber. Pretty keen on the Cats.
Suggested bet: Cats to win @ $1.46
Richmond ($1.20) vs. Fremantle ($4.80):
The Tigers are riding the crest of the wave at the moment and I’d be surprised if the Dockers can travel east and upset the Punt Road faithful (note last week’s results?). The Tigers have scored heavily in the past few weeks and that should spell trouble for Freo, who have struggled to convert up forward. On form, the Tigers could annihilate the Dockers!
Suggested bet: Tigers to win by 25+ points @ $1.66
Gold Coast ($8.00) vs. St Kilda ($1.09):
Another tough game for the Suns. St Kilda have been nothing short of competitive all year and as a mature team a similar display will assure victory here. Key being ‘a similar display’, which we know is easier said than done. Tough to find a way to earn a dollar on this one.
Suggested bet: None.
Essendon ($1.58) vs. Sydney ($2.45):
If you’re prepared to overlook the performance of Essendon last week, I think these odds are great value. Sydney have capitulated away from home and the Dons (if) on song are likely to inflict another painful defeat, away from the SCG.
Suggested bet: Bombers to win @ $1.58
Port Adelaide ($3.90) vs. Hawthorn ($1.26):
Which Hawthorn will turn up? I’m hoping the real one, which should spell trouble for the Power. Really liked them last week against the Blues, but will happily pocket my profits and take the Hawks to continue their march towards September.
Suggested bet: Hawks to win @ $1.26)
Melbourne ($8.00) vs. Collingwood ($1.08):
A traditional match with results rarely reflective of the pre-game market. Hard to tip Melbourne to beat Collingwood, but at $1.08 I’m not going to collect too much for my efforts. I’d look towards wagers that either have Melbourne in the game until half time or lose by a margin much less than that predicted by the bookies.
Suggested bet: None
Kitty: -$800
This week’s wagers:
- Multi: Cats, Tigers (25+), Bombers & Hawks for $100 @ $4.83
Bye and if you’re going away this long weekend keep it safe on the roads!
Max
Photo appears courtesy of Football Nation via Instagram.
Tags: Footy Betting, Footy Punting
Filled under: AFL Fixture, Expert Analysis, Latest News, Round 11
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