As it turned out, it mattered not as Adelaide would have put a knife through my heart on Saturday night when they turned up to play at the SCG, downing the hot Swans by less than a kick. You may very well have found some joy elsewhere though as Max’s preview stated:
Winner @ $21 (Carl vs. GWS) – Suggested bet: Brett Thornton to kick the most goals (no market yet) – guessing he plays forward in the absence of Waite?
Winner @ $4 (Ess vs. Bris) – Suggested bet: Brent Stanton to collect the most possessions given Raines is suspended and Rockliff likely to attract close attention given recent performances
and creditable near misses with:
(GC vs. Frem) Suggested bet: None. If you must, take the Suns to win for a small amount @ $7
(Syd vs. Adel) The Swans are no doubt the talking point of the AFL and it is hard to see their Cinderella start to the season curtailing on their home pitch, but most fantasies have a villain and Sanderson may well play that role. The Swans are a dominant favourite ($1.25) and deservedly so, but if you like the Crows ($4) I encourage you to stay strong.
There is no doubt the season is really taking shape and the form of most teams becoming more transparent. Now, let’s so how we can cash in:
Melbourne ($13) vs. Hawthorn ($1.04):
What a month the Demons face – Hawthorn, Sydney, Carlton, Essendon & Collingwood before they earn a rest courtesy of the bye! Ouch. You’d expect them to be 0-11 by then and with GCS playing GWS this week, they could find themselves at the bottom of the dung heap. Fair to say they are starting to show a little more fight, but that could be beaten out of them on Friday night as the Hawks have won their last eight against he Dees stretching back to the midpoint of 2006. St Kilda tried to stretch the Hawks up forward last week in an effort to exploit their lack of height as a result of injuries (Gibson, Boumann, Gilham), but Melbourne don’t have the likes of Koschitzke, Reiwoldt, Stanley & co., who still failed. Expect the Hawks to get back on track in a back way here.
Suggested bet: Either Sam Mitchell to collect the most disposals @ $2.10 or Buddy Franklin to kick the most goals @ $1.90
Adelaide ($2.28) vs. Geelong ($1.66):
The Crows get back to their home ground AAMI after a stellar victory last week against the Swans. They played terrific football and were relentless in their effort to get over the line. Slight concern over how much that has taken out of them as they will have to be ‘up’ again to hold off the Cats. I still think there is some improvement to come from the hooped ones and liked the return to form of Johnson & Chapman, as well as the steady progression of Motlop and Christensen. Both of these teams play an accountable style of football, which I suspect will result in a pretty even contest. I’m likely to pass on this match as it could go either way, but if forced to find the winner I’d go the Crows as I’m sure Brenton Sanderson and Darren Milburn (ex-Cats now with the Crows) will exploit their knowledge of the Cats players/programme.
Suggested bet: Take Adelaide at the margin (1-39) @ $2.85
GWS ($3.65) vs. Gold Coast ($1.30):
Surprisingly, I’m very excited about this contest between the two bottom teams (Melbourne split them on the ladder). Both have been very competitive so far and their endeavour terrific. The Suns are favoured by the bookies and I also give them a slight edge. Somewhat concerned though by the number of key injuries to both teams and the likely impact to their structures. The Giants are missing Brogan and O’hAilpin, with McDonald and Hombsch rested, while the Suns are without Bock and Harbrow, with Rischitelli, Swallow & Ablett all suspect, but named. Demetriou will be crying in his soup given the poor luck striking each list. I suspect coach Sheedy can smell the blood in the water and he will be very keen to get on the board here, which is surely their greatest chance of a win. Further north, coach McKenna will be desperate to stave off the newcomers and prove they are the more advanced outfit.
Suggested bet: Gold Coast to win at the margin (1-39) @ $2.20
Richmond ($1.95) vs. Sydney ($1.88):
Another intriguing game as the Tigers look to claim another scalp, whilst Sydney aim to regroup following their first defeat of season 2012. The Tigers have won only two of their last eleven matches against the Swans, but did towel them up at their most recent effort lat last year. They will surely be competitive (as I’ve mentioned each week) and were slight favourites yesterday. Perhaps the loss of Goodes has nudged the needle in the Tigers favour, as his ability to perform at either end of the ground (and at the right time) has been the difference on many occasions. Without Mumford the Swans midfield has continued to perform admirably and I think it will be this battle that will determine the victor (Deledio, Cotchin & Martin opposed to Kennedy, Bird & Parker).
Suggested bet: Very tough, either team could get on a roll and win big I think. Let’s go the Sydney/Richmond halftime/fulltime double @ $8
Brisbane ($5.50) vs. Collingwood ($1.16):
These two teams have enjoyed some great battles over the last decade (including two GF’s) with the Pies record at the Gabba suspect. They are strong favourites here and are shooting for their fourth straight win this season and take on a Lions outfit who have struggled to compete with the top clubs this year. It is hard to support them with any enthusiasm as the Pies’ list looks to strengthen again with the recall of Didak and Blair (still no Thomas or Jolly).
Suggested bet: Jarryd Blair to kick the most goals @ $17
Essendon ($1.63) vs. West Coast ($2.34):
Match of the round? Probably; only one loss between them to date (by 1 point) justifies this title. The Bombers have surprised many with their 5-1 record, particularly given their soft tissue predicament. Again, they seem to be in trouble with gun forward Crameri suspect with knee / ankle issues and Hurley still out with a string. It is the same story though for the Eagles, albeit their forwards are resting on the long term injury list! Still, both teams are finding ways to win and triumph by either outfit would not surprise. The Bombers record at Etihad is imposing (11 of last 12), but I’m inclined to go with the Eagles on the back of their solid performances over the last year and a half. Surely the Bombers are ‘unders’ at that price?
Suggested bet: Eagles at the margin (1-39) @ $2.85
North Melbourne ($1.39) vs. Western Bulldogs ($3.05):
The Roos have been typically honest so far and I expect the same to continue in round 7. Will that be enough to claim the four points here? The Doggies were enthusiastic last weekend and took the game right up to the Magpies, who were only able to shrug them off in the last quarter. Similar intensity here against the Roos (returning from a game out west) should see them competitive for a long way. The form line suggests celebrations at Arden Street come Sunday, but again, it wouldn’t take much to upset the applecart.
Suggested bet: North Melbourne to win at the margin (1-39) @ $2.20
Fremantle ($1.15) vs. Port Adelaide ($5.75):
I’ve got the jitters again here with the Dockers long odds on to beat a visiting Port Adelaide with 5 straight losses adjacent to its name. Surely, they will take them apart and maintain a position in the top four. Surely? Sandilands back must help! Probably fair to say the Power took a step backwards last week as the Tigers made them look second rate. I cannot entertain investing on the Power at Subiaco and will bury my Docker fears for another week.
Suggested bet: None
St Kilda ($4) vs. Carlton ($1.25):
The Saints are yet to prove themselves against quality opposition and they certainly meet that here. With Judd back in the midfield and Waite providing a line of sight to the big sticks I think they will gradually wear St Kilda into the ground over the 4 quarters. Koschitzke worked well in tandem with Reiwoldt last week (Stanley forced to ruck), but Henderson has been holding his own and Jamison is now running into some form as well. Great to see a Monday night clash!
Suggested bet: Carlton winning margin (25+ points) @ $1.85
Going to take full advantage of the four day fixture this weekend:
- Multi: Most goals Lance Franklin ($1.90) and Gary Ablett ($5) for $25 @ $9.50
- Multi: Crows (1-39), Suns (1-39), Eagles (1-39) for $25 @ $17.87
- Multi: Hawks (25+), Suns, Pies, Roos, Dockers (25+) and Blues (25+) for $50 @ $7.70
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