Footy Bets for Round 5 2012
Posted by Max ProphetApr 27. 2012 10:55 am
IT was like lambs to the slaughter last weekend as the visiting Dockers rolled the well fancied Saints on Friday night putting an end to our 5-leg multi.
So good old Max decided to butter up on Saturday by taking the remaining 4 legs (Blues, Pies, Cats & Dogs) in a second multi. This would cover my losses and leave with me a little extra for a few beers and a pie on Anzac Day.
The Result: Doh! The Dons simply outclassed the $1.08 favourite Blues from pillar to post.
The lesson: Once bitten, twice shy! Plan your punt and be prepared to deal with the fallout – this way, there will always be another week!
The balance of the results went pretty much to plan, with the key takeaways being a) Eagles won’t lose any at home; b) Hawks are for real this year; c) Tigers are improving and can win games; and d) my SuperCoach team reflects the AFL injury list!
With another classic Anzac Day battle in the books, let’s take a look at the remaining games:
Fremantle vs. Carlton:
Beginning to think we can take the Dockers on face value following their ‘away’ win last week and this means they can be supported with fervour out west. The Blues will carry the favourites tag for this match as well, but they won’t be running around with my hard earned on their backs. The loss of Carrazzo is a big one and Laidler is potentially more significant given their lack of height down back. The Dockers seem to have adopted the stifling type of game Lyon instilled at St Kilda and I think this will be effective against the Blues.
Suggested bet: Dockers to win @ $2.25
GWS vs. Western Bulldogs:
I’ve been impressed with Sheedy’s mob thus far; their attitude and effort is first class and they may soon begin to apply some scoreboard pressure to some of the lesser teams – perhaps as early as this week! The Dogs regained a little of their bite last week (vs. Demons), and expect they’ve taken some confidence from that.
Suggested bet: None
Nth Melbourne vs. Gold Coast:
The Roos were taken apart last weekend (vs. Sydney) and the Suns were taken apart by injuries! No Ablett, no Harbrow and a banged up Swallow and Rischitelli will make it tough for them to stay within cooee of the Roos, whose run and carry game has already smashed the other newbies (Giants). I expect the same result here.
Suggested bet: None. If you must, take the Roos to kick the highest score of the round @ $1.70
Melbourne vs. St Kilda:
Both of these teams were admirable in defeat last week, but it is the Saints who are strong favs here and I am right in their corner. The Demons game is uninspiring and their inability to prevent opposition teams enter the 50m and score is one of the worst in the league. I believe this will work well for the Saints who have no problem getting into their opponents 50m, but struggle to convert when they do. I suspect this will change this week.
Suggested bet: Saints at the margin (40+ points) @ $1.86
Brisbane vs. Geelong:
The Lions have been competitive to date and share the ladder position with their opponents this week (Cats), but that is where the similarities end. Scarlett’s inclusion is arguably the most influential of all of their players and the sleeping giants are surely due to start flexing their muscles.
Suggested bet: Cats to win @ $1.30
Hawthorn vs. Sydney:
With the Anzac clash behind us this could be the match of the round, albeit played down in Tassie. Even with a kind draw the Swans have been terrific and in typical Swans fashion play pretty even across the ground and importantly, for each other. Rohan’s absence is difficult to gauge as he plays in patches and the inclusion of Walsh could be a blessing. Big Mummy on the sidelines for a month is a big loss though as their game relies heavily on winning the ball in close from stoppages. The Hawks regain their inspirational skipper (Hodge) for his first game of the year and you could be forgiven for missing his absence (their footy being so good). Birchall and Puopolo have also come in to help out down back. I can’t recall the Swans having played in Tassie before (though they may have….) and the windy conditions that normally prevail make it tough on those infrequent visitors.
Suggested bet: Hawks to win @ $1.36
Richmond vs. West Coast:
I like the Tigers this year, yet I can’t find a way to make any money from their performances. Up against the Eagles, under the roof (if closed) is a daunting task as they are flying at the moment. A tough game last week (vs. Hawks) could see them a little sluggish this week, but that is not a trait of a John Worsfold lead team. Surely, the Eagles must ultimately prove too strong for the improving yellow’n’black.
Suggested bet: For the slow and steady, Eagles to win @ $1.33; for the brave, Richmond/West Coast in the halftime/fulltime market @ $6.80
Adelaide vs. Port Adelaide:
Even as a Melbournite, I must admit to loving the now traditional derby. They are always played with in high spirits and generally bone crunching encounters. I expect nothing different here either with both teams looking snatch a victory and a few months of bragging rights. The Crows, to my eye, appear to have lost a yard since their breathtaking NAB Cup performances, whereas the Power seem to be steadily improving. Their game against the Pies wasn’t bad and the stats from it compare favourably in all categories. The loss of Gray (the year) up forward is huge for them and they will need to find another smaller type avenue to goal (perhaps Rodan). These derby games are often difficult to predict and whilst the Crows seem the safe and logical choice, it may pay to be cautious. As the (potential) last leg of a mutli, give consideration to laying off on the opposition to guarantee a collect if alive and kicking on Sunday afternoon.
Suggested bet: Power at the line (+11.5 points) @ $1.92
I’m still stinging from our multi last week, but cannot ignore the opportunity to try again given what seems a round of obvious selections:
- Multi: Dockers (line +7.5pts), Saints, Cats, Hawks, Eagles, Power (+11.5 pts) for $100 @ $9.62
Kitty: -$125
Go nuts!
Max
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Tags: Footy Betting, Footy Tipping
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