Round 7 provided us with some stellar performances: The Crows smashing Geelong from pillar to post; The Tigers delivery in spades against the Swans; Collingwood finally clicking up north; The Bombers announcing themselves in dazzling style and the Saints well and truly bursting the Blues bubble – all too much for this mug punter!We’ve been hitting on three quarters of our multi bets each week but there’s always a surprise result that catches us out. Sadly, this week’s scenario looks no easier! Let’s take a look at the games:
Collingwood ($1.71) vs. Geelong ($2.15):
The Magpies finally got out of first gear on the weekend, dismantling the Lions in every position. This is a result of the Pies newcomers (Sinclair, Seedsman & Yagmoor) stepping up in line with the new age stars like Beams, Reid and Sidebottom (hehehehe). I’ve a sense they have some real momentum at the moment and it will take a determined Cats outfit to derail the train on Friday night. The Cats do love a challenge though, and as we saw last weekend (Bulldogs & Saints), teams on the slide need to take a stand at some stage and what a stage it will be at the ‘G’ in front of 90,000 screaming fans in a rematch of last year’s Grand Final. These teams opened at flip of the coin odds, but all the money has been for the Pies and I will be looking to kick start our multi on the Carringbush as well. Cats have won the last two by 38 and 96 points.
Suggested bet: Collingwood at the margin (1-39) @ $2.35
Port Adelaide ($2.70) vs. North Melbourne ($1.47):
The Power have shown resilience to date, but that’s about it. After some early season enthusiasm they seem to have settled down to play some pretty ordinary football. I’ve no idea whether the players have any respect for themselves, let alone Matthew Primus, who must feel like he is beating his head against the wall. Their opponents have been given a public shellacking from coach (Brad Scott), who seems just as scary on either side of the boundary line to me. I suspect the Roos will come to play this week and I think they can be backed with confidence.
Suggested bet: Take the Roos to win for plenty @ $1.47
Hawthorn ($1.20) vs. Fremantle ($4.60):
Ross Lyon’s Dockers outfit was labelled boring midweek, but the same cannot be said of the Hawks with Buddy and Cyril set to take centre stage come Saturday afternoon. The <insert boring adjective> Dockers will look to stymie Hawthorn’s potency, but I cannot see them being able to sustain this for four quarters. Hawthorn are likely to score 14+ goals and Fremantle, without an array of obvious goal scorers, will likely struggle to notch 12 majors. I’m betting this will be the difference in the end.
Suggested bet: Take the Hawks to win, but expect the Dockers to stay close. Hawks (1-24 points) @ $3.60
Sydney ($1.08) vs. Melbourne ($8.00):
On face value, it appears the Swans will make a one act affair of this one. The Swans were brave in defeat last week, but they never really threatened the Tigers and no sooner had they laid claims to being genuine premiership contenders, they dropped two pivotal games (ala Carlton). The short odds are not worth entertaining here and it is either the exotics or Melbourne for me, and I’ve a sneaky suspicion the Dees might pull off an unlikely upset. I’ve spoken to a few courageous Demons supporters who basically laughed off my prediction, so proceed with caution!
Suggested bet: Going with my heart, Demons to win @ $8
Western Bulldogs ($1.16) vs. GCFC ($5.25):
The Bullies have really sprung to life aver the past two weeks, albeit splitting those games with their opponents. Their midfield has grown a leg during this time with Boyd & Griffin running amok. The Suns are still winless despite some good contests, but I suspect it will stay that way given the absence of Swallow & Brennan from a team that lost to GWS. This game is in Darwin which requires some preparation as it usually produces a greasy environment which the Dogs have seemingly adapted to with 4 wins from 4 attempts. I can’t see an upset here.
Suggested bet: Back the Bulldogs to kick the highest score of the round @ $6
Essendon ($1.50) vs. Richmond ($2.60):
Dreamtime. Dream game! I can’t wait for this one – let’s hope it is a kick either way at the final siren. Both teams are progressing well, slight advantage to Essendon who have lost just the one game by a point thus far. But the Tigers have a sniff of success and it appears Damien Hardwick’s diligent planning and hard work is beginning to be rewarded. Recent history between these two teams doesn’t give us much to work with and perhaps we must look to the ladder for tip in the right direction (2nd vs. 12th). It doesn’t seem that long ago both Hird and Hardwick were themselves running around on the MCG, both with the Bombers of course and I’m sure there is a healthy respect for each other and their respective game plans. Hurley back is a bonus and for mine tops them off nicely, although I can’t see myself putting too much on the line as both teams appear capable of winning this one.
Suggested bet: None, just enjoy this one!
Brisbane ($1.20) vs. GWS ($4.60):
A nightmare matchup for the Lions who would have put this game in the bank preseason. Instead, they go in after three successive thumpings (37, 67 & 58 points) against an outfit that have just chalked up their first AFL win and will be full of confidence. Sheedy’s rotation policy continues and they are without of few of their good performers to date, but that theme has been consistent and they appear to deal with it quite well from week to week. Expect the Lions to hit the ground running with chests out, but the young Giants outfit don’t give up and I certainly won’t be taking the short odds on offer here!
Suggested bet: Take the Brisbane/GWS halftime/fulltime double @ $16
Carlton ($1.40) vs. Adelaide ($2.95):
Another seemingly even contest and one that the Blues will be desperate to win in order to re-establish their presence on the ladder. Their two losses to date (Essendon & St Kilda) revealed some weaknesses that I am sure the Crows will similarly look to exploit. They certainly have the right cattle to do so as well as they bullocked their way past Geelong last week in a show of strength that caught many by surprise. They have lost Taylor Walker though, who has roamed the forward fifty like he owns it this year and I expect that will be significant as the Blues can be suspect down back. I don’t buy in to the home ground advantage as Adelaide travel very well and I’m not sure the Blues love Etihad. The value here appears to be with the Crows.
Suggested bet: Going with the Crows (1-39) @ $3.40
West Coast ($1.39) vs. St Kilda ($3.00):
I’m still a bit shocked by the ease with which Essendon took apart the Eagles last week and I’m sure the Saints will take great heart from that encounter. They looked a bit second rate, but you can’t be great each week and it may pay to forgive them on this occasion. Not as shocking was the Saints dispatching of the Blues on the Monday nighter, although they were not favoured by the punters. The addition of Milera and Saad alongside Milne reads quite potent when you consider they have Koschitzke, Reiwoldt and Stanley in the air. If they can maintain the rage we could see an exciting and close game to round out the …..round. Naitanui is an important inclusion for the Eagles and gives them reason to quantify a form reversal. Interestingly, the Saints have won 4 of the last 5 against the Eagles including two at Patersons Stadium.
Suggested bet: Take with Saints with a 17.5 point start @ $1.92
This week’s wager:
- Bulldogs to kick the highest score of the round for $50 @ $6
- Matthew Boyd to collect the most disposals of the round for $50 @ $5
Kitty: -$425
Happy punting!
Max
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