The AFL Run Home: Sydney on top but will it remain there?
Posted by Brent DiamondJul 24. 2012 8:48 pm
WE take a look at the run home in the final six weeks for those in the mix to make finals in 2012 and find that the top eight may already be settled with only a couple of minor changes.
1. Sydney Swans
52 points (13 wins, three losses), 147.38 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Collingwood at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 23: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Sydney is a strong chance to remain in the top two at the end of the season and that was set up by its blockbuster win over West Coast last week. It is almost certain to win three of its last six matches and could even win all six going on its current form.
Our prediction: 2nd
2. Adelaide
52 points (13 wins, three losses) 133.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Geelong at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Essendon at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Fremantle at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 23: Gold Coast at AAMI Stadium
Adelaide has certainly been the major surprise in the top four, perhaps along with Sydney, but it is set to remain given its smooth run home. Will definitely win the final three matches of the season and will start as favourite in two of three coming up. Geelong at Simonds will be its biggest test, overcome it and a top two spot beckons.
Prediction: 3rd
3. Hawthorn
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 156.60 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at Aurora Stadium
Rd 21: Gold Coast at the MCG
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 23: West Coast at the MCG
Hawthorn has the best percentage out of any of the teams which will hold it in great stead. This mini patch with Essendon and Geelong will define its top four spot and its final two games between Sydney and West Coast will decide it. We have it winning one more game than the Swans and finishing on top by percentage.
Prediction: 1st
4. Collingwood
48 points (12 wins, four losses) 115.85 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at the MCG
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Essendon at the MCG
The loss to the Hawks put a major dent in its top four hopes. Certainly it should win the next two games but three out of its final four games of the season against Sydney, West Coast and Essendon will decide whether it belongs in the top four.
Prediction: 4th
5. West Coast
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 124.83 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at Patersons Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at Patersons Stadium
Rd 23: Hawthorn at the MCG
West Coast will probably need to win all of its final six games to make top four. Not impossible but when you have Geelong, Collingwood and Hawthorn in there, it’s going to be a tough ask.
Prediction: 5th
6. Essendon
44 points (11 wins, five losses) 122.02 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Hawthorn at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 22: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 23: Collingwood at the MCG
Any chance of a top four spot will be decided this Friday night against the Hawks. Are the Bombers up to it? Certainly they had an impressive start to the season and injuries have proven costly. Should still finish in sixth position and no less.
Prediction: 6th
7. Geelong
40 points (10 wins, six losses), 113.89 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Adelaide at Simonds Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 20: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Sydney Swans at Simonds Stadium
Geelong has had an interesting season and no matter where in the eight it finishes, it is going to be a danger team to meet first up. We’re predicting another Essendon v Geelong clash come September. Both are likely to finish sixth and seventh on the ladder. Not many teams behind them can overtake given their bumpy form.
Prediction: 7th
8. North Melbourne
36 points (nine wins, seven losses), 107.73 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Collingwood at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Greater Western Sydney at Skoda Stadium
The Kangaroos should win four of their next six but percentage will come into it with Fremantle and St Kilda breathing down their neck. Carlton is the other team that can still win eighth spot.
Prediction: Eighth
9. Fremantle
36 points (nine wins, seven losses) 105.06 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: West Coast at Patersons Stadium
Rd 20: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Patersons Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Melbourne at Patersons Stadium
The Dockers would need to win five of their last six or at least four with a healthy percentage and that is hard to see that happening with just three matches at home. Plenty could be on the line in its round 22 clash against North.
Prediction: 10th
10. St Kilda
32 points (eight wins, eight losses), 117.23 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Etihad Stadium
Rd 23: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Similarly the Saints will need to win four or five of their last six matches to even come into finals consideration and that would mean defeating perhaps two or all of Collingwood, Geelong and Carlton. Hard to see that happening.
Prediction: 11th
11. Carlton
32 points (eight wins, eight losses) 104.79 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 22: Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium
Rd 23: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
The Blues don’t have a bad run home but could struggle to win more than four of them which would put them only back in the hunt. It could come down to percentage in the end but ultimately their bad form in the middle of this season could cost them.
Prediction: 9th
Tags: AFL Finals 2012, run home, Sydney Swans
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